Lessons From Cote D’Ivoire

The making of a new Cote D’Ivoire - Gambia

So much to write about and the similarities are way too many so I will stick to the Houphet-Ado-Bedie part of the story to drive my point.  

Context

In the early 90s in Cote D’Ivoire had Felix Houphet Boigny, a a tribal Baoulé chief come president fell ill and his prime minister at the time, Alassane Dramane Ouattara (ADO) tried to rule the country for the last 18 months of the old man’s life without much success simply because the constitution did not give him the power to do so.  

On the wing, was another Baoulé who was strategically handpicked by Houphet to be the speaker of the house.  Why was this position important?  Simply because Houphet himself despite having a wild vision on how to develop Cote D’Ivoire was after all a tribal chief, harbored deep tribal believes when it comes to leadership and couldn’t see himself just handing power to a person outside of his tribe.  In the Ivorian constitution, the speaker of the house was next in the line of succession. 

ADO (from the Jula tribe) in the last 2 years of Houphet’s life was allowed to run the government with limited powers but the day he went on T.V to announce that Ivory Coast has been orphaned and that the old man is dead, is the day Cote D’Ivoire started its war.

Tribalism in Politics & Lessons for Gambia

The story of tribal politics in Cote D’Ivoire is so deeply rooted that it affected and continue to affect their daily lives.  In the early 90s, anyone who visited Cote D’Ivoire will tell you how Ivorians identified foreigners - “étranger la”.  In neighborhoods around Abidjan, the foreigners who’ve witnessed wars in other countries were cautioning them against seeing foreigners as bad to Cote D’Ivoire’s development but they never listened. 

Ivorians like many Gambians identify themselves with their tribe and make their political association based on that.  Peul bi, Sosseh Bi, Wollof Bi, etc.  At the surface, it is OK because people are what they claim to be in terms of heritage and there are benefits and great historical references for one to be associated with a group’s proud heritage.  

Gambia like Cote D’Ivoire is starting to tow a super dangerous line however.  We have too many parties tied to the hip with a tribe.  When you ask the wollofs, they tell you UDP party sosseh yi la, you ask the mandinka’s they say NRP party Peuls yi la, you ask the peuls, they say NPP party Sarahulleg yi la, and the Sarahullehs will tell you APRC party Jola yi la.  Again, at the surface, it might seem insignificant until it blows up in our faces.  

 

How will it blow up? Lessons from Cote D’Ivoire

1) Having a constitutional crisis: 

The candidature of Ousainou Darboe needs to be sort out as soon as possible.  I see those associated with the government pushing out theories that Darboe is somehow disqualified in the next round of elections.  Darboe and his supporters believe the opposite is true.  With less than a year to go, there shouldn't be any ambiguity in Darboe's qualification as the UDP candidate in the next elections.

In Cote D’Ivoire the constitutional crisis lead to Ado being banned from running and exiled.  This was the first real shot fired in the Ivorian war.  If Darboe’s candidature is not sorted out soon, then Gambia and Barrow must be prepared for a headache.

2) Presence of Foreign Forces

The presence of foreign forces in Ivory Coast has always been something a good number of Ivorians who were opposed to Houphet’s govt hated.  Their continued presence played a significant role in the creation of perfect set up for chaos in Cote D’Ivoire as some in the Ivorian Army started to align themselves along tribal lines and political parties in opposition to force Lincoln. 

Gambia, a similar scenario is playing out with Ecomog. The presence of Ecomog has started to make some Gambians uneasy.  Adama Barrow ought to hurry up and take  this security reform thing seriously so that the Gambian Army is given back its responsibility of being in charge of the security of the country.

 

3) Ivoiritè - who is more Gambian

Even during the time of Houphet, the tribes in Cote D’Ivoire and fueled by politicians always challenged each other on who was more Ivorian but Houphet was hugely admired so no one really gave him trouble. But during his time as prime minister, ADO being too close to France wanted to create a mini France in Africa and started to take on reforms and introduced French concepts and policies that just gave the Ivorian police power to abuse foreigners.  He introduced Cadre de Sejours in Ivory Coast and the outcome was disatrous for foreigners.  I remember the Ivorian Police harassing and arresting me and my childhood friend in front of his house while we are seated in his garden.  

The end for Ado was ugly. Bediè became president after Houphet died and used Ado’s system of checking who is Ivorian and not Ivorian to disqualify him from running for elections; citing that Houphet’s longtime Prime Minister and most trusted partner was not Ivorian himself.

In Gambia, we saw this in the 2020 draft constitution on the citizenship of children being born in Gambia to non-Gambian parents and then recently, we’ve heard Politicians like Hamat Bah and loud mouths like Ebou Jallow speaking on the matter on who is Gambian and who comes from Guinea and Mali.  The other side with some Mandinkas who are out of sync are equally guilty.  Regardless of where people's grandparents and parents are from, as long as they’ve met the constitutional requirements to become a Gambian citizen, they are 100% Gambian and have the same right as the Gambian whose great grandfathers were present when the British first landed in Gambia.  Anything short of that is a set up to antagonize and encourage people to set the country ablaze. 

 

4) What Cote D’Ivoire didn’t have - Land Issue

Gambia however has one up on Cote D’Ivoire - land issue.  Although it existed, by the time Houphet died, most of the battle for land by Ivorians and the tribes were already settled.  In Gambia and as part of the new government reform agenda, land was supposed to be a top priority, but the government seem to not have the interest or will to do anything about it and have continued to drag their feet on settling the many land disputes in the country.  Land is probably one of the most sensitive issues that must be dealt with. It is the issue that can easily bring chaos in Gambia.  From time to time, we see Gambians hacking each other to death over land.

5) Hamat Bah 

Not much to say.  The man has always been a loose canon and those online trying to give him the benefit if doubt should be condemned.  His most recent pronouncements are shameless and the truth is that his rat comment was a dog-whistle.  It is dangerous rhetoric but then again the man has no common sense.  I am not sure why the most ignorant people with the least common sense and worst intentions continue to be given position of authority to lead Gambians.

 

6) ADO - a leader in exile: Hello Jammeh

The present government ought to stop flirting with Yahya Jammeh’s status and tell Gambians what their intention is and take a position on Jammeh’s potential return to the Gambia.  

Like ADO, if Gambians think Jammeh is just in EG farming, then they really must not have studied the dangers of not resolving the statuses of former big men.  Ado while in exile adopted Jammeh’s tactic of keeping people guessing about his status but meanwhile in the background, he continued to sow the seeds of discord amongst Ivorians.  By the time he was done and ready to come back to Abidjan, he had enough support from "rebels" and France to shoot his way straight into the Palais and take his place as President.  Jammeh is however hated by the West and may not have the luxury ADO had in terms of likeness and a foreign power's support but it still does not remove the threat Yahya Jammeh poses to security of the country.

Sanusi Matter Dey Ground

About two weeks ago, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was suspended by President Goodluck Jonathan on the grounds that Sanusi misappropriated funds at the CBN.  Nigerian political commentators, economists and legal experts all have divided opinions about the legality of the suspension since the CBN is an independent financial body that is meant to protect the economy against unwarranted policies from politicians.  Not knowing much about Nigerian politics, I solicited the opinion of a Nigerian friend from college, who like me happens to be a keyboard warrior – always embattled in a topic affecting his country.  In his opinion, the law is clear; President Jonathan does not have the power to suspend Sanusi as that power is reserved solely for legislatures.  He was quick to add that Sanusi’s suspension is a classic example of how government really functions in Nigeria – corrupt, incompetent, and willing to do anything to maintain the status quo.  In short, he believes that Jonathan lacks the political will to fight corruption, a top priority of Sanusi as Governor of the CBN.

Due diligence or is it?

I must first admit that I am not well versed on the day to day affairs of Nigerian politics, so bare with me. In order to put this matter into perspective, I read the Ribadu report and excerpts from the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria which formed the basis Sanusi’s suspension.  The Ribadu report put forth outrageous findings about corruption at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which Sanusi claim is the real reason he was suspended.  The report states that 30-40% of oil production revenue is being lost to theft from government officials and international oil firms. Outrageous? Yes. Believable? Also yes; given that this is a country reportedly missing 65% of its national budget.  For Sanusi’s supporters, his suspension is tied entirely to him blowing the whistle on the corruption at the NNPC by claiming that $20 billion was unaccounted for.

But this gets interesting.  Sanusi himself is not clean if the FRCN is to be believed.  It must be noted that Sanusi was being investigated for unlawfully spending N163billion in projects without complying with the Public Procurement Act.  A similar matter former prime minister of Senegal, Mr. Edrissa Secka was accused of and later convicted for couple of years back. The report further details other financial misappropriations at both APEX and CBN under Sanusi’s watch, including facility management expenses, unsubstantiated travel expenses etc.  Interestingly, these accusations against Sanusi by the FRCN predate the counter accusations Sanusi is now making against the NNPC.  It seems that Sanusi saw what Jonathan and his cohorts were up to in regards to his position as governor of the CBN and decided to also play politics.  There are really no saints in this matter.  Jonathan being the president wanted to get rid of his stubborn governor before elections and in turn the governor knowing the banality of corruption in Nigeria, employed cunning tactics to feed to the already established notion that Nigerian politicians are all corrupt.

Personally, it saddens me that a person (Sanusi) I saw as a genuine anti-corruption crusader is also a part of the problem.  Both Sanusi and Jonathan owe it to Nigerians to maintain the positive influence they have demonstrated in a short period of time.  Under their leadership, Nigeria experienced a single digit inflation rate, the Naira was somehow stabilized, 1.6 million new jobs were created in 2013, and the UNCTAD is touting Nigeria’s credentials as the “No. 1 destination for investment in Africa”.  On Sanusi’s part, being arrogant will never help his cause to tackle corruption in Nigeria especially when he is not totally clean himself.  His duty as central bank governor is not only to guard the Bank’s independence but to also serve as President’s Jonathan’s number 1 Oga (alongside the finance minister) on economic matters.

 It is simple; the nation’s central governor cannot act like an opposition party to the sitting government.  If Sanusi believes that the government he is serving is corrupt and incompetent, he should have done himself a favor and resigned.  If he is interested in politics, he should have gone on to form or join a political party and strongly oppose the government of the day.  To be an effective Governor, one must be able to work with the President and his fiscal team.  Sanusi cannot play politics just because the cover for the clean image he portrayed is about to be shattered and I doubt Sanusi expected that Jonathan will just idly sit and watch him throw mud at his government.  After all, “THIS IS AFRICA” and with African politics, anything goes.

FASHOLA No Nonsense for President?...developing

JWI Update....

The  JWI lobbying contract to launder Jammeh's character in Washington, DC is no more.  The real losers however are the Gambian taxpayers who paid $1.2 million for a $40.00 website to the morally bankrupt Amb. Jackson Mcdonald and his JWI Group.  More to follow...

We Are Not Going Back To The Drawing Board

I stay away from partisan politics but this time around, the PDOIS has finally exposed its inflated sense of self-importance, and its control freak leadership.  Even the most loyal and hardcore followers of Halifa Sallah are starting to ask questions about the motive behind an editorial penned yesterday in the Foroyaa by one Ousman Njie for Halifa and his PDOIS party. The opening sentence of the editorial stated the obvious as only Halifa and PDOIS can; telling us that brain and not emotion is the key to leadership. Everything else about the editorial is vile, repulsive and insulting.

The editorial’s venture into American history only served to reveal the ignorance of the author about the history of the civil rights movement in America.  Martin Luther King was not a politician and never aspired to be one.  Even if he had harbored the notion, it soon evaporated because he realized early that he was more powerful and influential in his role as leader of a movement operating outside the machinery of government than trying “to take over the White House or the Congress.”  To think that only through government that change can be effected is pure madness. It is also folly to advance the false notion that “in International Law states and not personalities are recognized” and hence those “who control state power become the legitimate authority for the state”. The statement even though shortsighted, tells us a great deal about PDOIS’s view of government as the agent of supreme power.  May I remind the PDOIS that Adolf Hitler was recognized by law as the legitimate head of government but it took non-governmental organizations and victims of the Holocaust to help draw attention to the heinous crimes committed by a legally constituted and internationally recognized government.

The compartmentalization of Gambians into those “children of Independence and those born during the colonial period” by the PDOIS is a vainly concealed effort at sowing seeds of discord between the alliances that seemed to have emerged after Raleigh, London and Stockholm which culminated in those that emerged among the civil and non-political groups like DUGA-DC and the Organization for Democracy and Justice in Africa.  "The children of Independence" did not march the streets of New York and stake out at the Ritz-Carlton alone; those born during the colonial period joined us. We received and continue to receive moral and financial support from young and old, men and women, from Gambians and non-Gambians alike.  Gambians should and will vehemently oppose any attempt by any politician or group of politicians to compartmentalize Gambian society, be it UDP, APRC or PDOIS.  

The PDOIS editorial proceeded to accuse us, “the young of today” of being morons and marionettes who are being manipulated by those born during colonialism, and driven into political adventurism because we do not have a mind of our own and have less “clarity, maturity and tact”.  How insulting can Halifa be?  Is he pre- or post-Independent child?  I know Yahya Jammeh is post-Independent child because he's been reminding Gambians of it every day.  The advise PDOIS gives to the ‘young of today” is for us to “partner with those who wish to empower the people through necessary and viable means so that they can take full ownership of the country.”  In short, PDOIS is saying to the Coach Pa Samba Jows of this world that they should be partnering with Halifa Sallah and not with the pre-Independent relics , when he Halifa, has steadfastly refused to get off his high horses and join the demonstrators, at least in spirit.  But no, he’d rather hide behind Foroyaa editorials to throw rocks at those willing to take on Jammeh head-on when everything seemed to have failed.

To convince the “young of today” that we are on a fool’s errand for opposing the government of Yaya Jammeh because he’s legitimate in the eyes of Washington and London, the editorial cited the fact that the Syrian Foreign Minister was welcomed and heard at the U.N. which, in Halifa’s mind, is tacit support of the Assad regime by the Obama administration, ignoring the geopolitical importance of Syria and the fact that neither Barrack Obama nor any other member of the United Nations could deny another the right to take to the podium to speak.  It is a member’s right and not a privilege.  Halifa should know better.  It would have been a different matter if the Syrian Foreign Minister was provided a platform at the United States Army War College which could only happen with the consent of the Obama administration.

If Halifa Sallah or any member of PDOIS thinks that the demonstrations and activist agitations around the Gambian Embassy in Washington is to get foreign governments sever diplomatic ties with Banjul, then they are missing the point.  The protests rose out of the desire to change tactic after 19 years of political ineffectiveness of the opposition, including PDOIS, and designed to bring international attention to the violent dictatorship in Banjul, an objective that is being achieved beyond expectations.  And if you think we the so-called ‘children of Independence” are going to the drawing board, PDOIS and Halifa Sallah better think again.

Governments are extensions of their constituents but they may not necessarily and truly reflect the desires and aspirations of the governed, and this is particularly true of dictatorships.  Therefore, for Halifa and PDOIS to continue providing cover for a despotic leader like Yahya Jammeh by citing international law is further confirmation of what many have in the past, accused them of - they are collaborating with the corrupt and violent regime of Yaya Jammeh, whether they know it or not.  If after 19 years of writing 100 page letters to Yahya Jammeh following every unconstitutional and extra-judicial infraction without a single response is not enough reason to change tactic then nothing else will.  Therefore, the “young of today” have decided to take a different approach to political activism than to return to the drawing board.  There is of course nothing preventing Halifa Sallah and PDOIS to continue doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results every time.  A better option is for Halifa and PDOIS to get off their high horses and join the fight to get rid of an incompetent, corrupt and violent regime without endless lectures and preconditions.   

A Turning Point in The Gambia Struggle - Guest Blog

After Gambians in the USA humiliated him during his recent trip to the 68th UN General Assembly, president Jammeh returned home and, in typical fashion, used the state resources of GRTS to shamefully lie to the Gambians at home about what happened in New York.

He did not report that a good crowd of Gambians had gathered at the Gambian Mission in New York to register their displeasure with his dictatorship. He did not mention that his tyrant-in-the-making of a secretary general, Momodou Sabally, was almost beaten up by a lady he confronted at the demonstrations. He did not ention that his chief diplomat to the UN, Momodou Tangara, was actually beaten up in a fist fight by Falai Baldeh. He did not mention that he was scared into spending his entire time curled up like a mouse inside his hotel room, and he certainly did not mention that he was forced to cut short his trip to run back home without even visiting his ill-gotten mansion in Maryland purchased with stolen Gambian millions.

Jammeh used the state run propaganda tool of GRTS to lie to the nation. They shamefully used editing and camera tricks to doctor an interview he had with one Gambian to try and diminish the impact of the demonstrations. Unfortunately for Jammeh, the advent of camera phones, Facebook and other social media made sure Gambians at home and around the world know the truth. Events in New York were already circulating around the world unedited and almost in real time. Gambians at home are already talking about how surprised and disappointed they were to confirm that Jammeh is a lion at home but a mouse when away from State House and Kanilai. The video of Jammeh’s wife, Zainab, being smuggled through the hotel kitchen while his husband remained hidden in the hotel room, is something Gambians are still laughing about.

Freedom Newspaper spoke to the man whose words were twisted in the GRTS propaganda video and he confirmed that the GRTS video is a total misrepresentation of his interview with them. Key parts GRTS deliberately omitted include his questioning Jammeh on the murder of veteran Gambian journalist, Deyda Hydara, and the recent murder of 30year old Kasim Kanyi by Jammeh’s thugs. Mr. Jobe has been a supporter of the anti-Jammeh movement and he reassured our listeners that he remains a strong critic of Jammeh and his thugs.

Now realizing that his GRTS propaganda attempts to diminish the events in New York were not working, largely because of the power of the internet, Jammeh was forced to find alternatives. Unfortunately for him, the options were limited. He resorted to a blame game. Rather than letting Gambians and the world see that he was beaten by ordinary Gambians standing up for justice, Jammeh thought he would be better off letting them think there had to be a bigger force supporting these Gambians. First was the drastic and sudden announcement that he was withdrawing the country from the Commonwealth, branding the institution a “neo-colonial” institution, followed by two strongly-worded anti-Western statements on GRTS attacking the USA and UK and accusing them of orchestrating a “smear campaign” against The Gambia. As if that’s not ridiculous enough, a desperate Jammeh went on to accuse the USA of forming the country’s main opposition. He also tried to invoke tribal sentiments to divide the Gambian people. Again, unfortunately for Jammeh, we live in a different era and Gambians are not buying the distraction tactics this time. Instead, they’re more determined than ever and hit him with an upper cut he never dreamt of. 

As he was busy bashing the USA and UK, the taking over of the Gambian embassy in Washington DC must have hit him like a sack of bricks. Peaceful but determined, Gambians entered the Gambian embassy. The class and discipline they exercised is nothing short of admirable. No embassy employee was harassed and no property was destroyed. But the message was loud and clear – Gambians are ready to take on Jammeh and will stop at nothing to demand justice. According to DUGA and the other groups of Gambian activities, the events of New York were not a one-off. They’re part of a strategy and if anyone had any doubts, you don’t need to look past the taking over of the embassy in DC to see that they mean business. The activities and results are a model to be duplicated in cities all over the USA and Europe. Jammeh and his cronies can expect some “royal treatment” every time they step outside the cocoon of the guns of the Gambia National Army.

What impact will this have you ask? For starters, it has shown Gambians that Jammeh is only brave when he is in Gambia and has his guns around him. This is why he stayed hidden and would not dare step out of his hotel room in New York. Secondly, it shows how mentally weak he is to be so shaken by the activities of a few Gambians that he takes drastic actions like withdrawing from the Commonwealth. It shows that Gambians have had enough and will stop at nothing to confront the tyranny. Perhaps most importantly, activities in New York and in DC will be an inspiration for Gambians around the world, especially those in Gambia. Gradually, they will realize that power lies in the hands of the people and that it only takes a little courage and BOOM!!!...like a house of cards…..

Kemo Sanyang

Gambia's Resident Village Idiot at The United Nations

In case you missed our resident village idiot, below is a video of him at the U.N acting a fool once more.  As you can see, he looks rather worried after Gambians camped out at his hotel all night, and hurled insults at him as the U.S secret service smuggle him out to the U.N for this disjointed speech. I am sure the Gambian Pen (Secretary General Sabally) penned this one for him.

Jammeh, pays la meme c'est comment comment?

The Jammeh Peg

Jammeh has big problems but he’s not as dumb as we think he is.   The diagnosis of this Foreign Exchange wahala is simple.  Under Jammeh, the Gambian economy has seen a large increase in imports while domestic exports have stagnated.  Moving away from agriculture due to its low productivity, droughts, and misplaced agricultural policies, Jammeh and his gang of “advisers” decided to place their eggs in one basket by aggressively promoting tourism.  So far, tourism has also failed because with the global financial meltdown, vacation packages to places such as Greece and Vegas that were not affordable to those tourist we saw in Gambia have suddenly become affordable. Gambia is now in competition with these mainstream destinations. I will let you decide which of these places you would visit on vacation if given the option.  And to be honest, I can understand why tourists would want to opt out of visiting places where people go missing every now and then.  The safe, and “Gambia no problem” African beach ideal that made them want to visit Gambia under Jawara is no more.

The PEG: Jammeh, faced with economic difficulties, tried his hands at price controls a couple of times by threatening butchers, fishermen, and even the women that sell tomatoes at the market. Price controls in Gambia have failed because with shortages of basic commodities, domestic prices continue to increase on a daily basis while real wages have remained stagnant for almost 2 decades.

Business confidence is also low as Jammeh continues to hold monopoly of all business enterprises in the nation. Gambian businessmen and foreign investors are being prosecuted and jailed every month for the most frivolous of reasons one can imagine.

Jammeh's poor track record of rule of law, and neither here nor there economic policies (RE: harassment of investors and petty traders) date back to 1994. Ever since coming to power, the only businessman who continues to remain in Jammeh's good books is Mr. Amadou Samba.  Both local and foreign investors have ran afoul of the dictator in one way or the other.  Today, business' and investor will rather go to Senegal than take a risk and invest in Jammeh's Gambia. The result of this history is chronic failure to yield the required net flow of income for the nation, and a consequent failure to increase its international reserves and reduce its balance of payments.

In a attempt to remedy these disgraces, Jammeh has this week decided to peg our weak Dalasis to a single currency – the mighty USD.  What this means is that Jammeh is now telling Gambians that America’s performance, and not that of the Gambia, will be the only determinant of the value of the Dalasis.

The problem:  The problem of Jammeh’s pegged exchange rate regime is that, given Gambia’s dwindling foreign reserves coupled with its sluggish growth, the Gambia is not in a position to defend the Jammeh peg in case of any international crisis.  Pegging the USD to the Gambia Dalasis is dangerous in the sense that the US is not Gambia’s largest trading partner.  In simple terms, the cost of imports will increase if the dollar continues to depreciate against the currencies of Gambia’s major trading partners (Yen, Euro etc).  The cost to the Gambian economy is more inflation in an already overheated economy.

The Peg & Remittances: This Jammeh peg would depreciate the value of the money Gambians abroad send home to their families and friends; remittances that constituted 11% of GDP last year.   Gambians in the diaspora are already annoyed with Jammeh's constant manipulation of the country’s fiscal policies to their disadvantage. If this new policy is not dropped, Gambians at home can expect to be frequenting western union less often than in previous years - an effect that will affect the national economy, as remittances remain a vital component of the nation’s development and stability.

Solution: Jammeh and his advisers must go back to the drawing board.  Gambia, under the PPP with serious economic issues in 1986/1987 was able to control inflation and foreign exchange problems by floating the Dalasi.  Different times may call for different measures and if a peg is necessary to help with imports, it would be wise for the “advisers” to pursue a policy that ties the Dalasi to a basket of currencies but not just a single currency. Especially when the United States is not Gambia’s major trading partner.

Alternatively, Jammeh can stop harassing money traders in the parallel FX market and just ask his wife to stop spending the country’s meager foreign reserves on mansions, jets and shopping malls across the U.S.